Opinion: Is Sony heading for big trouble?
I'm worried about Sony. I think they could be about to have a couple of big disasters on their hands - the PS3 and Blu-ray.
I'm particularly worried about the PS3; it's complicated to manufacture, very expensive, a year behind the Xbox 360, has no killer games for launch, very negative press from practically all quarters, is inextricably linked to the fate of Blu-ray (which may turn out to be good or bad) and will be launched around the same time as perhaps the most innovative and interesting console ever - the Nintendo Wii.
This comes on the back of other recent failures for Sony - they've been stomped on by Apple in the digital music player space and Nintendo in the portable gaming space. Frankly, they can ill-afford either the PS3 or Blu-ray to fail, yet I can't help thinking that public opinion appears so against them, it could be an inevitability.
You only have to go and read the press articles or the comments on other gadget blogs to realise that people are very skeptical of Sony's strategy now.
They haven't exactly got a stellar record when it comes to media formats either, we all know the story of Betamax but what about UMD more recently? And Blu-ray, like the PS3, is going to be later and more expensive than HD-DVD, it's competitor.
I think HD-DVD and Blu-ray are going to hurt each other mind you, it's not quite as clear cut as the console wars. I think consumers will be very nervous to commit to either format until they are confident that it won't become obsolete in a year's time. But my personal preference at the moment is for HD-DVD - it appears to have superior picture quality and is cheaper.
Of course, Sony have been banking on the PS3 being a Trojan horse for Blu-ray, sneakily getting it into millions of households without consumers even really realising it. But I'm not sure this is actually going to happen. I think people are going to look at the lacklustre launch lineup of games for the PS3 and it's horrendous price tag and think "I could have a 360 and a Wii and get the best of both worlds for the same price as the PS3".
The 360 has already sold 6 million or so units and is on target for 10 million in the not too distant future, that's a massive lead over both Nintendo and Sony.
After a downbeat start the Wii has gained a surprisingly big following in the gaming community and there appears to be real excitement and great anticipation for the launch. People can't wait to get their hands on it and try the motion sensing controller and fun new gameplay styles.
The DS has proved that graphics and technical supremacy aren't everything - people want interesting, innovative and involving games. The DS has delivered that in spades but the PSP has seen far more than its fair share of derivative, lazy PS2 ports.
Yes, it's technically superior to the DS, has much better graphics, can play movies and music but people don't necessarily want all that, they just want to play great games.
I think the PS3 is making the same mistake, they're trying the PSP strategy again - they assume that by making it technically superior and cramming Blu-ray into it that it will win. Well I don't think it will.
I think the Wii is in a class of it's own and a lot of people will buy one in addition to either a 360 or a PS3; that means that the Wii could actually outsell both of the others and potentially the PS3 could come third. What a fall from grace that would be.
I don't envy Sony's position right now, they are up against one of the most innovative companies in the world with Nintendo and one of the richest with Microsoft. What a bad combination.
And as for Blu-ray Vs. HD-DVD, well the jury's out on that one, maybe they'll both fail or people will become less interested in physical media as Apple, Amazon and others launch proper movie download services?
Only time will tell, it's certainly interesting to watch but Sony have so much riding on these two pieces of their strategy, I dread to think what will happen if they've got it wrong.
Sources:
Joystiq
DS fanboy
The Guardian
Joystiq
Gamasutra
The Register
Engadget
Joystiq
HDTV UK
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